Secondly, EIA inventories fell by 2.508 million barrels, which is expected to be 520,000 barrels. The three-week continuous growthCrude Oil Trading Conference trend of US crude oil inventories ended and the decline reached the largest since July. Lower inventories and increased demand have supported further increases in oil prices.
However, UBS also pointed out that despite the largest increase in oil prices in history in the past year, the magnitude is still smaller than the increase before past recessions. After adjusting for inflation, global oil prices are still below their levels for most of the 2005-205 period. The increase in fuel efficiency also means that the oil needed for economic activities in the world today is reduced.
Generally speaking, the price of unleaded gasoline tends to go up during the summer tourist season from May to September each year; while the price of hot fuel oil tends to go up from October to April every year. The temperature in the eastern part of the United States during the winter has a great influence on crude oil prices.
In addition, global trade tensions have caused countries' GDP to perform below market expectations. The poor performance of China and the United States' GDP in the third quarter is a special reminder that the US GDP will be announced tomorrow. In view of the performance of the US stocks and US debt markets, the third quarter GDP may hardly achieve outstanding performance.
Credit Suisse also stated that future crude oil prices face more upside risks rather than downside risks. If Trump does not extend sanctions in May, OPEC's crude oil production will fall further, which will slow down potential supply growth.
When the EIA data came out last night, I believe everyone has truly seen the trend of the crude oil market, and the U.S. dollar has fallen unilaterally violently. Although the API data yesterday waCrude Oil Trading Conferences bullish, the trend was the opposite. The rebounding and empty market left many people wondering. The evening EIA forecasts in the market are really the same.